🔌 “Do Electric Vehicles Bring Down the Grid?
03/03/2026
📊 What’s Changing in the World’s Largest Electric Vehicle Market?
15/04/2026
TÜİK announced marriage and divorce statistics on February 24, 2026. We modeled this data from an automotive perspective:
🔎 Net Automotive Opportunity Index (NOFE)
Our assumption:
• 1 new marriage = +1 vehicle
• 2 divorces = +1 vehicle
(New household occurrence = potential automobile demand)
🇹🇷 Turkey Outlook (2024 → 2025)
• Marriages: -17,746 units decreased.
• Divorces: Increased by +4,830.
By our model:
📉 The total car market is affected by -1,4%.
📉 There was a potential loss of sales of approximately 15,331 units.
✅ This is just a demographic effect. Financing, interest, income level are not included.
🏙️ Big City Reality
60% of the total car sales decline comes from the five major cities.
• Istanbul: -5,689
• Izmir: -1,307
• Ankara: -870
• Bursa: -805
• Antalya: -643
👉 In large markets, even small rates create huge losses in quantity.
⚠️ Strategy: Inventory optimization and demand forecasting are critical in major cities.
❌ Provinces with the Steepest Contraction in Proportion
• Kilis: -27.8%
• Hakkari: -19.1%
• Bitlis: -18.4
👉% Demographic change creates a multiplier effect in small-volume markets.
⚠️ Strategy: There is a high stock risk in these provinces. Cautious planning is essential.
✅ Positively Diverging Provinces
• Şanlıurfa: +16.0%
• Bayburt: +12.3%
• Bartın: +9.7
👉% Increase in marriages in Şanlıurfa: +1,033 units. This rate is much higher than the average of Turkey (-1.4%).
⚠️ Strategy: Aggressive stock planning can be done in C-segment sedans and family SUVs.
📌 Critical:
The demand that occurs after divorce is generally:
• Smaller segment
• Second vehicle
• Focused on urban use
This directly affects product range planning.
Demographics are not just sociological data.
It is an early warning system for automotive.
